[Coral-List] NOAA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 13 to 17 Named Storms Predicted
Mark Eakin
Mark.Eakin at noaa.gov
Tue May 22 23:25:25 EDT 2007
See more details along with graphics at: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/
stories2007/s2864.htm
NOAA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
13 to 17 Named Storms Predicted
May 22, 2007 — Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are
projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season
will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane
era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us,
NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their
preparation plans.
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13
to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which
three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or
higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D.,
undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA
administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named
storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007
hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal
(the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased
Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface
temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when
an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile
environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms
did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water
and away from land.
"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña
will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell,
Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate
Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that
La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña
develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the
predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La
Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions
associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-
normal season."
Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm
Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season
ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above
normal season."
"With expectations for an active season, it is critically important
that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the
Caribbean be prepared," said Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane
Center director. "Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not
when the storm is bearing down on you."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30,
with peak activity occurring August through October. The NOAA Climate
Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August
just prior to the historical peak of the season.
The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is an official forecast
product of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Instituted in 1998,
this outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA scientists at the
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center, NOAA
Hurricane Research Division and the NOAA Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center. The NOAA National Hurricane Center has hurricane
forecasting responsibilities for the Atlantic as well as the East
Pacific basins. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National
Hurricane Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
are three of the NOAA National Weather Service's nine NOAA National
Centers for Environmental Prediction, which provides the United
States with first alerts of weather, climate, ocean and space weather
events.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200
years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of
the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation
of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the
1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA
is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety
through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related
events and information service delivery for transportation, and by
providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and
marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation
System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners,
more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a
global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it
observes, predicts and protects.
Relevant Web Sites NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook
(Technical Product)
NOAA 2007 Tropical Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Outlook
NOAA National Hurricane Center
NOAA Hurricanes Portal
Behind the Scenes: The North Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook
Media Contact: Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, (301)
763-8000 ext. 7163 or Greg Romano, NOAA National Weather Service,
(301) 713-0622
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C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
E/RA31, SSMC1, Room 5308
1335 East West Hwy
Silver Spring, MD 20910-3226
301-713-2857 x109 Fax: 301-713-3136
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