[Coral-List] August NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Outlook for August-November 2008
Mark Eakin
Mark.Eakin at noaa.gov
Fri Aug 15 11:29:20 EDT 2008
August NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Outlook for August-November
2008
The NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction system
indicates that there will be some bleaching in the Caribbean later
this year, but bleaching will probably not be severe. Currently, the
forecast system suggests that bleaching may be more severe in the
Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles than was predicted last month.
The potential for widespread bleaching in the Northwestern Hawaiian
Islands has lessened. Some bleaching remains likely around Papua-New
Guinea, through the Northern Mariana Islands and Micronesia, to Japan.
In a normal year, the model will forecast no potential
for bleaching. When sea surface temperatures are forecast to exceed
bleaching thresholds for a long enough period to cause bleaching, the
outlook maps display the bleaching potential. Actual conditions may
vary due to subsequent changes in climatic conditions or weather
patterns.
Pacific Bleaching Outlook:
Fortunately, the forecast for abnormally high
temperatures has lessened in the North Pacific, so the potential for
bleaching in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) is not as high
as the system forecast in July.
There is also a potential for some bleaching elsewhere in
the North Pacific that may influence reefs from Papua-New Guinea,
through the Northern Mariana Islands and Micronesia, and up to Japan.
Bleaching across this region is likely to be mild, similar to that
expected in the Caribbean this year. The reduced threat in the
Ryukyus suggests that the current high temperatures will hopefully
subside shortly.
The model now calls for unusually high temperatures along
the Pacific coast of Mexico. There is a potential for severe
bleaching around the Baja peninsula. However, we are not yet sure how
well the model performs in a semi-enclosed water mass such as the Gulf
of California.
Caribbean Bleaching Outlook:
The forecast system indicates that there is a potential
for bleaching across the Caribbean basin in 2008, but it is not likely
to be severe. The potential for widespread bleaching has increased
for the Windward Islands and perhaps along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Colombia.
For full details on our new forecast system and forecast graphics,
see http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook/index.html
Cheers,
Mark
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
E/RA31, SSMC1, Room 5308
1335 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910-3226
301-713-2857 x109 Fax: 301-713-3136
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